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Latest News
Brewers’ strength befits crazy 15-0 Cubs’ trend!
2009-07-02
The word “disappointing” has been thrown about regularly regarding the Cubs’ 2009 season thus far as they begin a key four-game series at home against the Brewers on Thursday night. Still, a big holiday weekend against division-leading Milwaukee and Chicago will be right back in the thick of things. According to a 15-0 StatFox Matchup Power Trend, that may be just what’s in store.
The ironic thing about this all-important trend is that it negates the Brewers best strength to this point, their bullpen. Milwaukee currently owns the best WHIP in baseball at 1.247. This sets Chicago up for a matchup that has been very favorable of late. Take a look at the trend, a rare 5* angle from FoxSheets:
CHICAGO CUBS are 15-0 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 6.5, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 5*)
Of course, with the Brewers teetering right below that key 1.250 WHIP benchmark, this trend might only be in place for Thursday if Chicago smacks around Milwaukee’s relief staff in the series opener.
Milwaukee comes off a disheartening 1-0 setback to the Mets on Wednesday. In fact, after going more than two months without being shut out, the Brewers have been blanked twice in the last four days.
Perhaps now they can sympathize with the Chicago Cubs.
The Cubs hope a return to Wrigley Field will help them snap out of a lengthy offensive funk, especially with the first-place Brewers in town for the first time this year to open a four-game set Thursday night.
Milwaukee had a chance to sweep each of its last two series, but lost 7-0 to San Francisco on Sunday and 1-0 to the New York Mets on Wednesday afternoon.
After scoring a combined 16 runs in their first two games against the Mets, the Brewers (42-36) wasted a seven-inning, 12-strikeout effort from Yovani Gallardo in the finale. They went 0 for 7 with men in scoring position.
"We're in first place. That's all that really matters," outfielder Ryan Braun told the Brewers' official Web site. "We're playing well right now, and I think a lot of guys are starting to put together some quality at-bats. We're in pretty good shape."
The Cubs can't make the same claim. They've scored 129 runs since May 19, fewest in the majors over that span, and suffered six shutout losses to tie Atlanta for the most in that stretch. Chicago went 16-23 in those 39 games.
Last year, the Cubs (37-38) led the NL with 855 runs.
Despite its problems at the plate, Chicago is 3 1/2 games behind Milwaukee in the tightly bunched NL Central. Thanks to some strong pitching, the Cubs took two of three from Pittsburgh this week even though they managed seven runs in the series.
Chicago's offensive woes are a major reason why Ryan Dempster went 0-2 in his five June starts. He had a 3.23 ERA in the month, but received 2.35 runs of support per nine innings as the Cubs lost all five games.
Dempster entered the year with an 8-2 record and 2.45 ERA in 35 appearances against Milwaukee, but he is 1-1 with a 5.84 ERA in two starts versus the Brewers in 2009.
The Cubs and Brewers split their first six meetings of the season, all at Miller Park. Milwaukee was 5-4 at Wrigley last year, an impressive mark considering Chicago went 55-26 at home.
Seth McClung (3-1, 3.55) will be making his first career start against the Cubs, although he has pitched 5 1-3 innings of relief versus Chicago this year. He held the Cubs to a .177 average while posting a 2.55 ERA in 10 career relief appearances despite walking 10 in 17 2-3 innings.
Game time is 7:05 PM local time in Chicago.
Why not bet San Diego tonight?
2009-07-01
It may not seem like a lot, but San Diego has won three of its last four games for the first time in over a month. On Wednesday night, the Padres will continue a 4-game set at home against the Astros, trying to make it four out of five. Oddsmakers have put them as +110 underdogs. Don’t let the line dissuade you though, San Diego is backed by two different powerful FoxSheets systems.
Here are those systems. They are similar but still unique. The first one is a rare 5* StatFox Super Situation:
Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (HOUSTON) - with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (NL)
(74-21 since 1997.) (77.9%, +51.5 units. Rating=5*)
The other one reads as follows:
Play On - Any team (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (NL), after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs
(44-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.0%, +34.8 units. Rating=4*)
Both systems seem to be indicating that this game could be decided in the late innings, and the fact that San Diego’s bullpen is pitching well, and Houston’s is not, gives the Padres an edge.
On Tuesday, the Padres snapped their six-game skid to the Astros, but they may have lost their best player in the processwith Adrian Gonzalez departing after straining his right knee sliding into third on a fourth-inning RBI triple.
"We're going to see how it sets up overnight, and (Wednesday) morning we'll see if there is a need for any tests," manager Bud Black said.
Gonzalez has played in 283 straight games, the longest current streak in the majors. He's 22 shy of Steve Garvey's franchise record.
San Diego is last in baseball with 291 runs and a .236 batting average. The Padres hit .230 while losing 17 of 26 in June. They dropped 10 of 15 at Petco Park last month after winning 10 in a row there from May 7-24.
San Diego will hand the ball to Walter Silva (0-1, 9.35 ERA), who makes his fifth career start. The 32-year-old rookie walked four and allowed a season-high nine runs over 2 1-3 innings of Friday's 12-2 loss to Texas.
The Astros (36-39) counter with veteran right-hander Brian Moehler (4-4, 6.05). Houston has won his last three starts and seven of the previous nine. Moehler gave up four runs - one earned - in five innings of Thursday's 5-4 victory over Kansas City. He didn't get the decision after Houston committed three errors.
Houston is 13-5 against the NL West in 2009, but 2-5 at Petco Park.
Game time is 10:05 PM ET in San Diego.
Football Betting is back on Wednesday!
It might not be the first day of the college season, nor the start of the NFL preseason for that matter, but football bettors can still rejoice that the action is back on Wednesday night, with the CFL offering a Canada Day doubleheader. It’s a unique set of games in that the first one pits the two worst teams of a year ago, while the second matches the defending Grey Cup finalists from 2008. Still, both contests should be competitive. Here’s a quick look at both, including some key betting info, direct from FoxSheets.
In the opening matchup, Hamilton will host Toronto. These teams combined to win just three and four games respectively a year ago, at least four less than any other clubs, so work clearly needs to be done. Despite that, cautious optimism still reigns supreme. Hamilton will likely be handing the reigns of the team to young quarterback Quinton Porter, who last started for Boston College in the 2005 season. He will be guiding an offense that actually produced well in ’08, scoring 24.5 PPG while gaining a respectable 8.2 yards per pass attempt.
Defensively in where the Tiger Cats really need to improve in order to be more competitive this season. That unit yielded 32.9 PPG to opponents last season, second most in the CFL, not coincidentally to, Toronto.
The Argonauts have not won a game since Labour Day and have a new coach with no CFL experience. Still, there is hope that Bart Andrus and his staff can help quarterback Kerry Joseph return to the form that made him a league MVP and a Grey Cup champion with Saskatchewan in 2007.
Toronto was outscored by 13.1 PPG, and was probably fortunate to win four games in ’08, as it ranked dead last in the league in both points scored and allowed.
The Argos opened as a 1-1/2 point favorite, but since the line has moved to Hamilton minus-2. The total has settled in at 51.5. The Argos have won three of the last four head-to-head games in Hamilton, both straight up and ATS, including that Labour Day triumph, 34-31.
Both teams sported ugly 2-7 SU & ATS records in the current home/road dichotomies, so no real advantage can be gained in that analysis. The StatFox Game Estimator #1 projects a 33-26 win for the hosts.
If you’re interested in backing a top trend for game one of the twinbill, consider that HAMILTON is 18-5 UNDER (+12.5 Units), and TORONTO 18-6 UNDER (+11.4 Units) in the first two weeks of the season since 1996.
The nightcap is certainly a bit more intriguing of a game, as defending champion Calgary welcomes runner up Montreal to town. The Stampeders opened as a 3-1/2 point favorite but have been bet up to minus-7.5.
Calgary is the favorite by oddsmakers to repeat as CFL champ, but if any team is to stand in its way, it would be Montreal, the heavy favorite in the East Division. Repeating a Grey Cup title has proven to be a tough task. It's only been done five times, with the 1996-97 Argonauts being the last team to accomplish the feat. The Stampeders will be looking to be the sixth team.
"The thing is, we didn't peak last year - in any of the phases (of football)," said Stamps quarterback Henry Burris. "This year, that gives us that challenge to go out there and build the right way and make sure we're peaking at the right time - and actually peak this season."
For a team that didn't peak, Calgary was pretty good. They finished 13-5 and were second in the league with 568 points scored. The defence allowed just 387 points against, tops in the CFL. Coach John Hufnagel was named the CFL's Coach of the Year.
If Calgary does repeat, they would be just the fourth team to win the Grey Cup as the host. The last team to pull that off was the B.C. Lions in 1994.
The Alouettes won the East at 11-7 last year and will have 2008 Most Outstanding Player Anthony Calvillo back at quarterback to lead an offence that led the league with 584 points scored. Avon Cobourne will chase the league's first 1,000 yard rushing and 1,000 yard receiving season. He was on pace to do it last year before injuring his ankle.
One notable stat plagues the Alouettes. They were 0-3 playing Calgary last season, including the 22-14 Grey Cup setback. Montreal scored just 21.0 PPG in those three contests, well below the 35.1 PPG pace set in the other 17 games it played.
There are two key StatFox Power Trends available for Wednesday’s game:
Favoring Calgary ATS:
CALGARY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CALGARY 33.3, OPPONENT 18.2 - (Rating = 1*)
Favoring Under the Total:
MONTREAL is 18-6 UNDER (+11.4 Units) in the first two weeks of the season since 1996. The average score was MONTREAL 28.9, OPPONENT 17.8 - (Rating = 1*)
The StatFox Game Estimator calls for only a 30-26 win by Calgary, so it would seem that oddsmakers had it right when they opened up the line. We’ll see if bettors have gotten a bit overzealous in backing the defending champs.
Tune in to both games in HD on Canada’s TSN tonight, starting at 7:00 PM ET.
MLB: Big-time run line system backs Giants in St. Louis
2009-07-01
Most baseball bettors use the K.I.S.S method when it comes to filling out their wagering tickets each day. They Keep It Simple by just playing sides and the occasional total. More savvy players mix it up though, throwing in some 5 inning bets or run line wagers when it makes sense. Perhaps this is because most bettors don’t have access to powerful information, like systems, to take advantage of those latter opportunities. Well, for Tuesday, a big-time Super Situation from FoxSheets backs San Francisco as a +1-1/2 run dog in St. Louis. Take a look.
The Giants shut out the Cardinals on Monday night behind Tim Lincecum. The final tally was a decisive 10-0 count, with San Francisco beating St. Louis 12-2 in the hit column as well. Now, because of that results, with the ageless Randy Johnson squaring off against Chris Carpenter, the Giants actually make for a strong underdog play on the run line at about +1-1/2 -125. Here is why, according to FoxSheets:
Play Against - Home favorites against a 1.5 run line (Money Line =-190 to +175) (ST LOUIS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games (78-21 since 1997.) (78.8%, +49.9 units. Rating=4*)
In essence, the system is indicating that too much of this line is reliant on another dominant performance by Carpenter. That is apparently a dangerous presumption to make after San Francisco broke out last night. What’s most interesting about that game is that the Giants are among baseball's least productive offensive clubs, a fact the Cardinals are having a hard time believing after they were hit hard in the series opener.
Of course, repeating the outbreak at the plate won't be nearly as easy. The Cardinals will have ace Carpenter on the mound. He is 5-2 with a stellar 1.78 ERA and 0.700 WHIP. He is also 3-0 against San Francisco in his career with an ERA of 3.00, including a win on May 30th on the road when he allowed just two runs in six innings.
San Francisco (41-34) came into St. Louis this week with the NL wild card lead, but a potent lineup hasn't been what's made it one of baseball's most surprising teams. Instead, it's been the major league-best 3.61 staff ERA that's propelled the Giants despite a less-than-stellar offense that scores just 4.1 runs per game.
They averaged 6.5 runs in their last two contests in Milwaukee over the weekend, though, and that offensive spark carried over on Monday. Edgar Renteria and Travis Ishikawa each drove in three runs to support reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum's two-hitter.
Johnson (7-5, 4.68), the 45-year-old left-hander, has done a particularly impressive job lately. He's 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last seven starts, and gave up one run and six hits over seven innings Wednesday in a 6-3 win at Oakland.
Johnson's two starts against St. Louis last season didn't go well. He went 0-1 with a 9.31 ERA, yielding five homers in 9 2-3 innings.
In other key Run Line Betting information available from FoxSheets on this game:
* SAN FRANCISCO is 12-2 against the run line (+10.1 Units) in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.4, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 1*)
However, there is one strong bit of info that would seem to conflict our top system a bit, focusing on the aspect of revenge. It is a team trend and reads as follows:
* ST LOUIS is 57-28 against the run line (+33.2 Units) revenging a shutout loss to opponent since 1997. The average score was ST LOUIS 5.1, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)
What wins out, system or trend? Find out tonight when the Cardinals host the Giants from baseball-friendly Busch Stadium at 8:15 PM ET.
MLB Series Betting- Chicago Cubs at White Sox
2009-06-26
The Windy City is about to get a whole lot windier with the Cubs invading the South Side of Chicago to face the White Sox. For the fans of these teams, this is really a treat, for the bragging rites of the town, no matter where they finish in the standings. (Be in the baseball betting action checking the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, TEAM STATISTICS and PROPS like SERIES WAGERING each day)
The Cubs (34-35, -8.6 units) return to Chicago having lost the first four games of their road trip. Once again it is a lack of offense, averaging three runs per game to start the 10-game trip. The North Siders are just 6-14 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span this season.
The White Sox (35-37, -2.4 units) are feeling pretty spry after beating the best team in baseball, the Dodgers, two of three times. “Most importantly, we won a series against a club like the Dodgers, who came into town with the best record,” Sox outfielder Scott Podsednik said. “Maybe that will give us some momentum at home. We haven’t been playing that great here.”
The Pale Hose have won four of five and seven of last 10, as they try to get back to .500 on the season. Their win yesterday ended 0-2-1 home series drought. The down side is they are 23-37 having won three of their last four games over the last two seasons.
The White Sox will face Randy Wells (1-3, 2.57 ERA), who is coming off his first major league victory after finally receiving run support. He has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his eight starts, yet picked up just his first win last Sunday against Cleveland in 6-2 victory. He’ll face Jose Contreras (2-6, 5.23), who is 2-1 in last three starts with 1.23 ERA. Sportsbook.com has the Cubs as slight -110 money line favorites with total of Ov.9. The Cubs have been poor series starters and are 4-13 in road games when playing on Friday’s since last year. The White Sox by contrast are 13-3 as a home underdog of +100 to +125.
Game 1 Edge: Cubs
Mark Buehrle (7-2, 3.17) is one of the most dominant home pitchers in baseball. The left-hander and his Sox mates are 45-20 at US Cellular Field and he is 19-6 in interleague play. The month of June has been Buehrle’s time, with 27-11 record and the White Sox have won 20 of last 28 starts the lefty has made on Saturday.
Contrast those numbers with the Cubs and Ryan Dempster (4-5, 3.83) on the road. Coming into the series, the Cubbies are 5-16 in last 21 visitor assignments. This includes in part losing nine in a row in interleague play in road uniforms. Dempster and the Cubs have dropped 10 of 11 road games he’s started and if the Cubs lose on Friday, the two collectively are 0-9 off a defeat.
Game 2 Edge: White Sox
The final game of the series has Carlos Zambrano (4-2, 3.48) taking on John Danks (5-6, 4.43). Zambrano has complained he’s “bored” playing road interleague games, since he doesn’t get to hit with Cubs using DH. Big Z hasn’t pitched that way with 3-1 record and 2.78 ERA in away contests. Danks hasn’t been able to spot his pitches as well this year, being hurt by the long ball. The left-hander surrendered 15 home runs in 2008 and has allowed 11 already this year. Maybe pitching during the day will help, with his earned run average less than half playing in the afternoon compared to pitching at night (2.45 day vs 5.00 night).
Game 3 Edge: White Sox
These teams have taken turns sweeping each other the last two years off the Dan Ryan Freeway, with the Pale Hose taking all three a season ago. The White Sox have won four of last five and are playing better baseball at the moment. To borrow from Sox announcer Ken “Hawk” Harrelson, “Good Guys” take the weekend series.
Sportsbook.com series odds: Cubs +115, White Sox -145
StatFox Edge Pick: White Sox
MLB: Lowe vs Pettitte – Just like the old days
2009-06-26
Tonight’s pitching matchup in Atlanta pits the Yankees’ Andy Pettitte vs. the Braves’ Derek Lowe. To the baseball historian, that should conjure up memories of past Yankees-Red Sox duals gone by. If nothing else, it’s simply fun to talk about. Well, things have and always will change, as tonight’s game is an Interleague affair, with little or no added flair besides the pitchers. Atlanta started as the home dog, but is now the favorite. Follow the LIVE ODDS page for the latest price on this game.
It’s closing in on five years since the last time the New York Yankees last faced Derek Lowe and it’s one they would just as soon forget. Lowe is only 8-10 with a 6.07 ERA in 39 career appearances (15 starts) against the Yankees; however the last appearance left a distinct mark. Pitching on two days rest, Lowe gave the Boston Red Sox six solid innings of one-hit baseball, which enabled them to overcome 3-0 deficit in the deciding game of the 2004 ALCS and go on to win 10-3. Riding that momentum, Boston went on to end 86-year drought and win the World Series.
Lowe (7-5, 4.09 ERA) left that off-season as a free agent and hasn’t run into the Yankees since until tonight. After a 5-1 start with his new team, Lowe has been hit harder of late, with 1-2 record and 7.47 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn’t been able to locate his sinker as well and hitters have fattened up batting averages. The Braves are 1-4 in his last five starts.
Andy Pettitte (7-3, 4.26, 1.500) has pitched better than anticipated for the Yankees who are 10-4 in his starts in 2009. Pettitte has been a big part of New York’s past glory and like every pitcher on the Yankees staff, is trying to adapt to new Yankee Stadium which has been a hitter’s haven. Pettitte has been particularly impressive on the road with 4-1 record and among the better hurlers in baseball with 2.35 ERA in the traveling uniforms.
New York (39-32, -8.7 units) ended their three game losing streak last evening, pounding out 10 hits in 8-4 triumph over Atlanta. The Yankees will be trying to win the rubber game of the series and are 61-30 in Game 3’s. If they would happen to lose this evening, that would mean they would have to sweep the Mets this weekend to finish .500 in interleague play.
Atlanta (34-37, -9.7 units) has been stuck in neutral, going nowhere fast. Since sweeping Toronto in the latter stages of May, the Braves are 0-6-3 in series action, with Monday’s makeup game against the Cubs not counting. About the only real positive is Atlanta is 5-1 against the American League at Turner Field this year.
New York opened as favorite, but sports bettors have flipped the two teams at Sportsbook.com and Atlanta is now a -110 money line favorite with a total of Un8.5. The Braves are 6-1 as -110 to -150 favorites and are 17-6 UNDER on Thursday’s. The Yankees are miserable 1-6 after scoring five or more runs in previous game and are 16-3 UNDER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last two seasons with Pettitte as the starter.
Game time is 7:10 Eastern and can be seen on YES or Peachtree networks, with Atlanta 4-12 (-11.4 Units) after a loss by four runs or more this season.
StatFox Power Line – Yankees -104
