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What would Stantons $325 million deal mean for Harper?
Im more into 12-year deals for young players, he said that afternoon, perfectly straight-faced.
Boras never mentioned any one player by name, but the insinuation was obvious. He was talking about Bryce Harper, and doing so in contract terms never before realized by any professional baseball player.
Never realized, that is, until right now. The Miami Marlins appear on the verge of a 13-year, $325 million contract extension with Giancarlo Stanton. And if the thought of that many years and that much money guaranteed to one player doesnt blow your mind, consider what this development might mean for the Washington Nationals and their own young, star outfielder.
Yes, if youve ever wondered what it might cost to keep Harper in a curly W cap for the rest of his career, you just got a pretty good idea.
Stanton may not be the perfect comparison for Harper, but hes as close as anybody else in the game at this moment. Indeed, look at what Harper has done in his first three big-league seasons vs. what Stanton did in his first three years with the Marlins, and there are some striking similarities.
Stantons batting average through three seasons (ages 20-22): .270. His on-base percentage: .350.
Harpers batting average through three seasons (ages 19-21): .272. His on-base percentage: .351.
Stanton did hit for considerably more power than Harper, out-homering him 93 to 55 and out-slugging him .553 to .465. But weve certainly seen Harpers massive power potential on display, and consensus opinion is that hell continue to develop into one of the best power hitters in the game, right alongside Stanton.
Combine that with Harpers young age hes slated to become eligible for free agency in November 2018, right after he turns 26 and its not hard to figure out what kind of contract terms he could be looking at in the not-so-distant future.
Much of the focus on the Nationals so far this offseason has been on the dilemma they face trying to lock up any or all of their key players who will be free agents one year from now: Ian Desmond, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister.
But it needs to be pointed out plenty more key players will be approaching free agency shortly after those three. Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen and Wilson Ramos are eligible after the 2016 season. Harper will be eligible after the 2018 season. Anthony Rendon will follow after the 2019 season.
Thats a long way off, but those days will arrive before you know it. Or, more specifically, the day in which long-term extension talks begin to come up will arrive much before you know it.
The Nationals are in no hurry to secure Harpers career-long employment just yet. They need to see him continue to develop and keep himself healthy and on the field before they can reasonably commit to him for the long haul.
But when that day comes, be prepared to hear Stantons soon-to-be-announced deal brought up for comparison. And as much as your mind was blown upon first hearing the words 13-year, $325 million contract over the weekend, imagine your reaction when you first hear the numbers likely to be attached to Bryce Harpers name a couple of winters from now.
MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 7/30-8/1
Another month is almost in the books in the 2010 Major League Baseball season, as teams will wrap up July and welcome in August this weekend. More importantly, the trade deadline is Saturday and there has already been a flurry of activity over the last few days. Expect more to come. That activity however, can make life difficult for bettors, since pitching matchups are changing, lineups are being adjusted, and relatively few series go unaffected. With that in mind, let’s take a look at what’s on tap for the next three days’ action and reveal this weekend’s list of Top StatFox Power Trends to consider in your wagering.
One of the biggest moves in anticipation of the trade deadline occurred yesterday when the Phillies acquired Roy Oswalt from the Astros. Oswalt will get his first start for Philadelphia on Friday when he goes at Washington. The Phillies are heating up and come into the series as winners of their last eight games. Their bats have finally gotten going, having produced 5.8 runs per game during that stretch. In addition, Philly has dominated Washington of late, going 31-11 overall and 15-6 in Washington over the last three seasons.
The National League’s biggest series is in Cincinnati though, where divisional leaders will square off. The Reds host the Braves for three games, with both teams holding on to slim leads. Atlanta leads Philadelphia by 2-1/2 games in the East but that lead is shrinking fast, as the Phillies are streaking and the Braves are not. They are just 5-7 in their last 12 games, and will try to improve this weekend on a road record of 24-30.
Elsewhere in the Senior Circuit, the rivalry between the Giants and Dodgers resumes in San Francisco, with the hosts heading upward in the standings and the visitors sliding down. The Giants are 17-5 since the 4th of July holiday, having taken over the wildcard lead 3-1/2 games behind San Diego in the NL West, but 3-1/2 games on top of sinking L.A. The Dodgers are just 9-12 in that time span but made a key move this week in acquiring Scott Posednik to plug the outfield gap while Manny Ramirez remains unable to play with a calf injury. Los Angeles is looking to repeat the 3-game sweep of the Giants they enjoyed in San Francisco in late June.
In the American League, the best two teams in baseball will get together for three games when the Yankees visit the Rays. Only two games separate these teams at the top of the A.L. East Division, with Tampa currently in tow. The Rays can easily make up that ground this weekend though, as you’ll see from the trends below that they have absolutely dominated good teams at home in the latter part of the last few seasons. Both teams are playing at the top of their games right now and three solid pitching matchups will make this a series to watch. Incidentally, all eight games between these teams in 2010 have gone OVER the total.
Finally, out West, it’s last gasp time for the Angels, as they host the division leading Rangers for three games. With the Rays comfortably in control of the Wildcard race right now, it’s division or bust for almost everyone else. In that sense, the fact that Angels trail the Rangers by 9-games heading into this series make this desperation time. The clubs have separated over the last two weeks, with Texas going 8-3 since July 18th and the Angels winning just two of 10 games in that span. Angels bats are partly to blame, with just 2.9 runs per game put up in that stretch. At this point, anything but a sweep will be a failure in Anaheim.
Now, here’s a look at those top StatFox Power Trends you’ll want to consider for your weekend wagering.
<b><i>PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON</b></i>
<li>PHILADELPHIA is 6-14 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 3.8, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>ATLANTA at CINCINNATI</b></i>
<li>ATLANTA is 19-10 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 5.1, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>ARIZONA at NY METS</b></i>
<li>NY METS are 20-5 UNDER (+14.3 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. The average score was NY METS 2.9, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 3*)
<b><i>MILWAUKEE at HOUSTON</b></i>
<li>MILWAUKEE is 30-42 (-21.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.1, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>PITTSBURGH at ST LOUIS</b></i>
<li>PITTSBURGH is 2-14 (-11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.1, OPPONENT 6.9 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>CHICAGO CUBS at COLORADO</b></i>
<li>COLORADO is 126-69 (+31.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 since 1997. The average score was COLORADO 6.9, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>FLORIDA at SAN DIEGO</b></i>
<li>SAN DIEGO is 23-8 (+13.9 Units) against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.7, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>LA DODGERS at SAN FRANCISCO</b></i>
<li>LA DODGERS are 15-32 (-16.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 3.1, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>CLEVELAND at TORONTO</b></i>
<li>TORONTO is 14-2 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 6.1, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>DETROIT at BOSTON</b></i>
<li>DETROIT is 16-33 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season. The average score was DETROIT 3.8, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>NY YANKEES at TAMPA BAY</b></i>
<li>TAMPA BAY is 14-1 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.7, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 3*)
<b><i>BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY</b></i>
<li>KANSAS CITY is 24-9 OVER (+14.7 Units) in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. The average score was KANSAS CITY 6.0, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>OAKLAND at CHI WHITE SOX</b></i>
<li>CHI WHITE SOX are 17-4 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 6.0, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>SEATTLE at MINNESOTA</b></i>
<li>SEATTLE is 4-21 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 3.5, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>TEXAS at LA ANGELS</b></i>
<li>LA ANGELS are 77-61 (+17.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 4.7, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)